Foresight and scenario development for anticipatory adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Agenda

About the consultation

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is experiencing significant transformations driven by climate and socio-economic change. Variations in temperature, precipitation patterns, and the increased incidence and intensity of extreme weather events are impacting ecosystems, water resources, and communities. Socio-economic changes like migration, urbanisation, and infrastructure development are affecting local livelihoods and traditional resource management practice.

Many adaptation strategies currently focus on addressing immediate impacts reactively, but climate models and projections underline the need for proactive anticipatory measures. These measures involve planning for potential future changes and uncertainties. Despite improvements in global climate science, and our capability for long-term projections, effective adaptation requires better understanding of impacts on livelihoods and economies. Further, adaptation needs are highly context-specific, so a nuanced understanding of impacts, adaptive capacities, and resources must be developed at local scale. There is an urgent need to develop approaches that can bridge the gap between global climate science knowledge, climate impacts and adaptation actions needed at local scales.

In this context, ICIMOD is seeking to identify and analyse trajectories of critical risks under different climate scenarios and its implications for mountain economies and livelihoods. This will support stakeholders in preparing for anticipatory adaptation actions in development, planning, and transitioning to sustainable mountain economy. Under the intervention ‘Foresight and policy scenarios for adaptation in mountain economies’, we will also take stock of locally led adaptation in the region and identify the knowledge gaps for effective anticipatory local adaptation.

Objectives

• Explore foresight approaches and methodologies undertaken by various organisations and formulate an approach tailored to the specific challenges and needs of the HKH region
• Build a shared understanding of locally led adaptation in the region and assess stakeholder interest in implementing locally led adaptation strategies
• Foster collaborative partnerships aimed at conducting foresight studies and locally led adaptation

Participants

The target audience includes government agencies, non-governmental organisations (NGOs/INGOs), academic and research organisations, and development practitioners.

Outputs

• Approach, methodologies, and partnerships for foresight work identified
• Shared understanding of the state of locally led adaptation in the region